According to a Wall Street analyst, the threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin is real, but it remains distant for now. While quantum computing has the theoretical potential to pose a serious threat to Bitcoin, the current risk remains far off and manageable at this stage.
According to Wall Street brokerage firm Benchmark, Bitcoin still has substantial time on its side and, more importantly, has multiple technical pathways to upgrade its system in the future. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer, a well-known and generally pro-crypto voice in the industry, believes that recent headlines have overstated concerns about quantum computing. According to him, while the threat is undeniably real, it does not constitute an immediate danger.
Palmer argues that Bitcoin can gradually update and strengthen its cryptographic framework. By the time quantum computing becomes sufficiently advanced, Bitcoin is likely to be technically prepared.
How does the quantum threat work?
Quantum computing is often described as a potential “cryptographic doomsday” because it could, in theory, break almost all existing digital security systems. Under normal circumstances, attempting to guess a Bitcoin private key on a classical computer would take trillions of years.
However, in theory, quantum computers could enable hackers to crack private keys within minutes. Significantly, Bitcoin’s primary vulnerability does not stem from its SHA-256 mining algorithm. The genuine concern lies with ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm), the cryptographic system that protects users’ private keys.
In simple terms, breaking Bitcoin does not require hacking the mining process. If ECDSA were ever compromised, there would be a risk of wallet private keys being exposed. When Bitcoin is spent, its public key becomes visible on the public network, where, in theory, a quantum attack could be executed.
Why is the risk still low?
Palmer emphasises that no quantum computer currently exists that is capable of breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA encryption. Even if such machines were to emerge, it could take anywhere from 10 to 20 years or potentially even longer.
Today’s quantum computers:
Operate at a minimal scale
Are highly error-prone
Are incapable of handling computations of such magnitude
Additionally, only about 1–2 million BTC are stored in wallets whose public keys are already exposed, such as early Satoshi-era wallets or addresses reused. Even these coins are not practically unsafe at present. Before a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it remains briefly visible in the mempool, where a theoretical attack could occur—but this would still require a potent, flawlessly functioning quantum computer, something that currently lies closer to science fiction than reality.
Industry debate intensifies
The crypto industry has been debating the quantum threat for a considerable time. Many experts believe the risk remains several decades away. Michael Saylor of Strategy (MSTR) has stated that quantum computing is not just a threat to Bitcoin, but to banks, the internet, and global digital security as a whole.
On the other hand, Christopher Wood of Jefferies reduced his Bitcoin exposure in his portfolio by 10% due to quantum-related concerns.
The industry is preparing.
Despite the threat being long-term, the crypto industry has already begun proactive preparations. Recently, Coinbase established a Quantum Advisory Council to address quantum risks in a serious and structured manner. Ethereum has also elevated post-quantum security to a top priority, forming a dedicated Post-Quantum team.
No systemic risk
According to Palmer, even in a worst-case scenario where some older Bitcoins are lost due to a quantum attack, it would not pose a systemic risk to the Bitcoin protocol itself. For investors, quantum computing represents a long-term technical challenge rather than an immediate existential threat to Bitcoin or its investment thesis.
In the near term, Bitcoin’s price is far more likely to be influenced by:
Liquidity conditions
Regulatory developments
Institutional adoption
Topics such as quantum supremacy are not currently meaningful price drivers for Bitcoin.
